Royal Rivalry – Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Who is the Greatest?
As I sit here on my comfortable living room couch watching the most recent meeting at Wimbledon 2019 of the two greatest titans of tennis, I am thankful that I have had the opportunity to witness tennis history over the past decade and a half. 38 majors between them. Over 180 total titles together. Over 250 million in prize money earned combined. Countless strokes of genius on the court. With the possibility that these meetings may become fewer and farther in between due to each titan’s continued aging, I began to think again about who is the definitive GOAT. Is it Roger Federer, General of Grass, or Rafael Nadal, King of Clay?
Each of these gods among men have won more grand slam major titles than any of their peers. Typical beliefs would lead one to believe that by this stat alone Federer earns the title of GOAT as his total exceeds Nadal’s at a tally of 20-18. The next closest is Novak Djokovic with 15 (sorry Novak, maybe in the future I will need to rethink this post). Grand slam titles have been a long used way of measuring success, especially since the inclusion of professional players at the start of the open era in 1968. Breaking down both Federer and Nadal’s grand slam victories shows that 12 of Nadal’s 18 majors (66%) have come from one event, the French Open, and at times he has been labeled a clay court specialist rather than an all-around great. However, he was eventually able to round out his game and has since earned titles in all four majors completing the career grand slam. He did this over a period of 9 years. Federer, on the other hand, has long been considered an all-around player. The largest fraction of his grand slam title victories comes from 8 Wimbledon victories or 40% of his total 20. 5 titles (25%) are from the US open and 6 titles (30%) are from the Australian open. This leaves 1 title from the French Open allowing him to complete the career grand slam as well. Federer completed his career grand slam in a matter of 7 years, which is 2 years shorter than it took Nadal.
Interestingly, in Federer’s one French Open championship, he was able to avoid Rafael Nadal who lost to Robin Soderling in the fourth round. If we are to consider Federer the General of Grass as Nadal is the King of Clay, it was necessary for Nadal to beat Federer in 1 out 2 Wimbledon championship runs, the other time Federer having been eliminated earlier. Additionally, it is interesting to compare the number of grand slams won once each player could be considered to have hit their ‘prime’. To make comparisons, we will consider this point in time as starting when each player won their first grand slam title. For Rafael Nadal this was in 2005. Federer, because he is nearly 5 years older, won 4 titles already starting in 2003 prior to Nadal winning his first title in 2005. This means that if we are to define each player’s ‘prime’ by this criteria, then Federer has won 16 grand slam titles and Nadal 18 grand slam titles while each has been in their respective primes simultaneously and able to compete against one another, placing Nadal ahead of Federer.
It may also be important to extend the analysis to not only championships won, but championships in which the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals were reached without an ultimate title win. By calculations, not including the ongoing 2019 Wimbledon semi-final, Federer has appeared in 33 further late-tournament matches including 9 quarterfinals, 14 semifinals, and 10 finals second place finishes. Nadal has reached 20 further late tournament matches including 7 quarterfinals, 5 semifinals, and 8 finals second place finishes. At a glance, this data would suggest that when not winning the French Open, Nadal’s performance is less admirable than that of Federer.
These numbers are great, but perhaps the best numbers to have in terms of analyzing two players are head to head numbers. Mano a mano. Fortunately, due to the timing of their careers and unlike some other sports comparisons we have an ample sample size of head to head matches to look at. Federer and Nadal have competed on opposite sides of the net a total of 39 times. In these 39 times, it is Nadal and not Federer who comes out with the edge 24-15. 26 of these matches have been non grand slam tournaments. 13 have been in grand slams. In non grand slam tournament matches Nadal is up 14-12 and in grand slam matches Nadal is also up 10-3, with 6 of these wins being in the French open for Nadal and 2 wins of Federer’s 3 wins at Wimbledon. This would suggest that in head to head grand slam matches off of clay or grass, Nadal is 4-1 against Federer. 37 of these matches can be considered during their simultaneous primes as defined above, with one win each coming prior to 2005. If we are to neutralize each king’s respective court, that is clay for Nadal and grass for Federer, we are left with 20 matches (not including Nadal’s withdrawal against Federer due to injury in the 2019 Indians Wells Masters) that have occurred on hard courts, creating a common ground where neither should have such a distinct advantage or disadvantage. In these non-clay and non-grass matches Nadal has won 9 and Federer 11. This would suggest that when Rafael’s advantage on clay and Federer’s advantage on grass disappears, that Federer has a slight advantage.
Other things to include in the analysis are Nadal’s golden slam, weeks at number 1, and overall win percentage. Nadal was able to complete the golden slam (all four grand slam championships won and an Olympic gold in singles) in 2008 when he won in Beijing. He has 1 gold medal in 3 attempts. Federer on the hand is 0 for 4 in achieving gold at the Olympics in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. In terms of weeks at overall number 1, Federer has Nadal beat by a wide margin at 310 weeks to Nadal’s 196 weeks, including a continuous span for Federer of 237 weeks eclipsing Nadal’s entire total. In terms of career win percentage, in singles matches Federer is 1221-264 for an 82% win percentage and Nadal is 956-195 for a near identical but slightly better 83% win percentage (statistics courtesy of Wikipedia).
So there you have it. The major data considering Federer and Nadal in direct comparison. Before writing this post, I was ready to say Nadal was in fact the greater of the two due to his head to head record. In hindsight, I am sticking with this belief. Federer has had more success versus other competitors than Nadal, demonstrated by his more weeks at number 1 and 2 more grand slam titles, but when you get so close in talent as these two, what really matters is who comes out on top when compared in head to head matches. I think the data shows that Nadal does, indeed, have Federer’s number.
What do you think?
